After the Fall

If anything, what's happened to Shinawatra is more like EDSA Dos, rather than the first incarnation of people power in 1986. As Ruchir Sharma writes, "[Thailand] is in the midst of an elitist uprising, centered in Bangkok, home to 6 million of its 65 million people and most of its real wealth. There thousands of middle- and upper-class Thais are angered by, among other things, the economy's poor performance; Thailand has been among the worst performing emerging markets for two years running."

Sound familiar? Take a look at the stock exchange and the peso in the waning days of the previous administration. Take a look at GDP growth (or non-growth) for the final three years of the Marcos era. Further evidence that what drives revolutions and regime change alike is economics, the citizens' collective pocketbook. Freedom fighters and idealists make a lot of noise and drama, and often get themselves killed in the process. Quite romantic, if you're the sort, and not really a bad way to die, into the breach and all. But in the final analysis, they are window-dressing. They provide the rationalizations and weave the myths that the victors write into the history books. But the decisions that matter most are determined by the soulless indicators and indices trending implacably downwards. Decisions by moguls to withhold investments and finance the opposition. Decisions by middle managers to follow their bosses. Decisions by ordinary people, feeling the pinch in their thinned-out wallets, to join the protests in hopes it will get better after the fall. At best, the true believers are merely catalysts. And as anyone who has studied any chemistry knows, catalysts can only hasten, but can never drive, the inevitable reaction. Meaningful, significant change is driven by, yes Virginia, the cold hard cash of self-interest.

But I digress. As I was saying, Thaksin is more similar to Erap than to Arroyo, and not just because he is a fellow populist with overwhelming support among the poor. The campaign to unseat him, like the one to oust Erap, was driven mainly by the middle and upper classes, and smells faintly of class war. Alas, as Wehrfritz and Cochrane note, "the middle-class protesters furious at Thaksin simply don't trust elections to produce good leaders." Oh dear, and these were the very champions of democracy. More from the same article: "Sondhi Limthongkul, a key member of the anti-Thaksin alliance, believes the rural Thais who form the backbone of Thaksin's support are too uneducated and easily manipulated to be allowed to choose the country's next leader." Tut tut and tsk tsk, I'm speechless. At least over here we still pay lip service to democracy. And yet there are those in our own oppo falling all over themselves in Bangkok envy, extolling the brave Thai opposition, or praising Mr. Shinawatra for his consideration. Were they to apply the same standard here, they'd all be going rah-rah for Cha-Cha, and thanking Erap profusely for having given way to Arroyo.

My fearless prediction: the Thais will soon find themselves defending their little revolution from the same criticisms we had to endure after EDSA Dos. Perhaps Ms. Arroyo should send a congratulatory telegram to whomever succeeds Mr. Shinawatra, forthwith and with much haste. It's only fitting.